OddsEdgeDouble chance betting explained, with fair odds examples
4 min read
Double chance lets you cover two of the three possible results of a match in a single bet. You win more often, but at shorter odds. The key question, as always, is whether those odds are fair.
The three double chance bets
- 1X: home win or draw.
- X2: draw or away win.
- 12: home win or away win (anything but a draw).
Working out fair odds
A double chance probability is just the sum of the two outcomes it covers. Start from the fair 1X2 probabilities of a match (with the margin removed, as in How to calculate fair odds):
| Bet | Fair probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 45.43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 28.06% | 3.56 |
| Away | 26.50% | 3.77 |
| 1X | 45.43 + 28.06 = 73.49% | 1.36 |
| X2 | 28.06 + 26.50 = 54.56% | 1.83 |
| 12 | 45.43 + 26.50 = 71.93% | 1.39 |
If X2 is offered at 1.95 somewhere, the edge is 1.95 ÷ 1.83 − 1 ≈ +6.5%. If it is offered at 1.75, it is a poor bet, however safe it feels.
Double chance vs Asian handicap
1X pays out on a home win or a draw, which is the same as home +0.5 in Asian handicap. The two markets are often priced slightly differently, so it is worth comparing both. Draw no bet (handicap 0) is the cautious middle ground: a draw returns your stake instead of winning or losing.
When double chance makes sense
- When the price is above fair odds. That is the only reason that matters in the long run.
- When you want lower variance. Shorter odds mean fewer long losing runs, though each win pays less.
"Safer" does not mean "better". A 1X bet at 1.30 on a 73% chance (fair 1.36) loses money over time, even though it wins most of the time.
Key takeaways
- Double chance probability = sum of the two outcomes covered.
- Fair odds = 1 ÷ that probability. Compare with the best price available.
- 1X equals home +0.5, and X2 equals away +0.5. Check both markets.